TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The deployment of the U.S.' Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea has spiked the already high tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, angering not only North Korea but also China, which sees the missiles and advanced radar as a security threat.
▲圖／翻攝自中國郵報
North Korea test-launched four ballistic missiles into the ocean near Japan shortly after U.S. missile launchers and other equipment required to set up the system arrived in South Korea earlier this month.
China also responded quickly, saying it would take "necessary measures" to protect itself, and warning that the U.S. and South Korea should be prepared for the consequences.
Chinese state media People's Daily wrote that the cutting of diplomatic ties with South Korea should be considered if THAAD were deployed.
Economic Retaliation
China, which is South Korea's largest single trading partner, has launched a series of retaliatory economic measures, including shutting down four branches of Lotte Mart, a South Korean discount retailer.
According to media reports, starting this month, Chinese citizens wishing to travel to South Korea will not be able to book trips through travel agencies. The reported decision is likely to have a significant effect on a country that has greatly benefited from a rising numbers of Chinese tourists, who account for half of all foreign visitors annually.
The measure will be familiar to Taiwan, which has seen a drop in mainland tourists since Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became president last May.
The cooling relations are due mainly to China's insistence that the so-called "1992 Consensus" be the sole political foundation for the continuation of cross-strait exchanges — a precondition the Tsai administration has been unwilling to accept.
As a retaliatory measure, there had been a steady decline in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan, presumably on the orders of Beijing, to the extent that many local travel agencies and businesses who used to depend on Chinese visitors have taken to the streets asking for the government's help.
As THAAD is deployed in South Korea and amid speculation that Japan may become the second northeast Asian state to deploy the system, many have expressed concern that Taiwan, a close economic and defense partner of the U.S. despite a lack of official diplomatic ties, could be next.
Hong Kong-based magazine Asia Week (亞洲週刊) last month published excerpts of an article written by a former Taiwanese naval commander, Lu Li-shih (呂禮詩), who said the military suspected that the U.S. could be selling THAAD to Taiwan soon.
The move, Lu said, would enable the U.S. to counter ballistic missiles positioned in southern China aimed at Guam.
Several opposition lawmakers have expressed resistance to the idea, warning that Taiwan may have to pay a high price if it decided to house the system.
Former Straits Exchange Foundation Secretary-General Chen Charng-ven (陳長文) also objected to the potential deployment of THAAD in Taiwan, which he warned could drag the island into any potential military conflict between the U.S. and China.
Beijing 'could use force' if Taiwan Installs THAAD
According to a recent report by Fu Ying (傅瑩), spokeswoman of the fifth session of the 12th National People's Congress, "Beijing would use force to unify the island should Taiwan decide to install THAAD."
Amid such rhetoric from China, several top Taiwanese government officials have openly opposed the idea.
Defense Minister Feng Shih-kuan (馮世寬), asked for the ministry's official stance, said: "(Taiwan) should not be involved in other nations' wars or make pointless sacrifices in conflicts between two global powers."
Taiwan's military fought to protect the nation and its sovereignty, Feng said.
Foreign Minister David Lee (李大維) said he was not aware of any talks between the U.S. and Taiwan over a possible deployment.
So is there a possibility that Taiwan could become home to THAAD missiles despite the threat from China?
Not much of one, according to local military experts, who say that doing so was neither necessary nor affordable for Taiwan.
Chieh Chung (揭仲), a senior assistant research fellow at the National Policy Foundation, a Taiwan-based think tank affiliated with the opposition Kuomintang, said the biggest threat that the People's Liberation Army posed to Taiwan was its short-range Dongfeng Ballistic Missiles (東風飛彈).
THAAD, on the other hand, was designed more to shoot down medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, Chieh said.
With PAC-2 and PAC-3, 'no need for THAAD'
Taiwan has already deployed Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 missile systems to effectively counter the Dongfeng threat, thus there seems to be no immediate need for local military to purchase THAAD from the U.S.
Taiwan's annual defense budget usually stands around NT$300 billion (US$10.1 billion). The money is already being used to upgrade existing missile defense systems and could not stretch to cover the purchase of THAAD, even if the government wanted to, according to Chieh.
Each THAAD system reportedly costs an estimated US$800 million.
With that said, Tsai's administration has shown willingness to cosy up to Washington, especially since President Donald Trump won the presidency late last year.
A telephone call between Tsai and then President-elect Trump on Dec. 2, the first of its kind since Washington cut ties in 1979, indicated a possibly Taiwan-friendly attitude from the new White House.
Trump even suggested that the "one China" policy could be negotiable, but later retreated and reaffirmed the principle in a call with mainland Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Only last month, former American Institute in Taipei chief Stephen Young disclosed that the de facto embassy would be stationing marine guards at its new office.
The stationing of marines at the compound — a massive building spanning approximately 14,000 square meters that is expected to be completed later this year — has been seen by some local analysts as an effort by the U.S. to show even closer Taiwan relations.
Ultimately, whether or not THAAD is deployed here, Taiwan is caught in the middle of an ongoing power struggle between the world's two largest powers.
As a "shrimp among whales," what can Taiwan do to protect itself from being used by both Beijing and Washington?
James F. Tzeng (曾復生), a professor of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, told The China Post that as a businessman, it was not unlikely that Trump would be willing to sacrifice Taiwan's interests for the sake of his "America First" drive.
Beijing could also target Taiwan if it considers the latter to be getting too close to the U.S., according to Tzeng.
Given the ongoing cross-strait tension, he said, it was critical for Tsai and Xi to establish a new consensus and set up a communication platform based on mutual trust.
Only through this approach, he said, could the likelihood of the U.S. using Taiwan as a bargaining chip be reduced.
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